diff --git a/pageserver/src/metrics.rs b/pageserver/src/metrics.rs
index 6cb245aed7..1f31e5a8fb 100644
--- a/pageserver/src/metrics.rs
+++ b/pageserver/src/metrics.rs
@@ -257,7 +257,7 @@ impl EvictionsWithLowResidenceDuration {
     }
 
     pub fn observe(&self, observed_value: Duration) {
-        if self.threshold < observed_value {
+        if observed_value < self.threshold {
             self.counter
                 .as_ref()
                 .expect("nobody calls this function after `remove_from_vec`")