diff --git a/.github/workflows/cloud-deploy-relay-asia-topology.yml b/.github/workflows/cloud-deploy-relay-asia-topology.yml
index d22f8c36494..5f594852eb5 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/cloud-deploy-relay-asia-topology.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/cloud-deploy-relay-asia-topology.yml
@@ -55,6 +55,8 @@ jobs:
       CLOUD_SQL_INSTANCE: ${{ inputs.environment == 'production' && 'orca-cloud-auth-db' || 'orca-cloud-staging-auth-db' }}
       VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS_TIER: db-custom-4-15360
       VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS_DATABASE_VERSION: POSTGRES_17
+      # SHOW max_connections on the live instance, 2026-09-16; no flag is set.
+      VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS: '500'
       TF_BACKEND: ${{ inputs.environment == 'production' && 'backend/production.hcl' || 'backend/staging.hcl' }}
       TF_VARS: ${{ inputs.environment == 'production' && 'environments/production.tfvars' || 'environments/staging.tfvars' }}
       TOPOLOGY_WORKLOAD_IDENTITY_PROVIDER: ${{ inputs.environment == 'production' && vars.PRODUCTION_GCP_RELAY_ASIA_TOPOLOGY_WORKLOAD_IDENTITY_PROVIDER || vars.STAGING_GCP_RELAY_ASIA_TOPOLOGY_WORKLOAD_IDENTITY_PROVIDER }}
@@ -119,13 +121,13 @@ jobs:
               live_max="${live_flag}"
               live_source=explicit-flag
             else
-              # The verified production database uses Cloud SQL's 400-connection
-              # default for this exact shape; fail closed if its shape changes.
+              # No flag: the ceiling is the tier default measured for this exact
+              # shape; fail closed if the shape changes.
               test "$(jq -er '.settings.tier' <<< "${instance}")" = \
                 "${VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS_TIER}"
               test "$(jq -er '.databaseVersion' <<< "${instance}")" = \
                 "${VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS_DATABASE_VERSION}"
-              live_max=400
+              live_max="${VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS}"
               live_source=verified-shape-default
             fi
             test "${live_max}" = "${checked_max}"
diff --git a/cloud/dev/scripts/relay-asia-topology-workflow.test.mjs b/cloud/dev/scripts/relay-asia-topology-workflow.test.mjs
index cc34af47a25..d8965f02869 100644
--- a/cloud/dev/scripts/relay-asia-topology-workflow.test.mjs
+++ b/cloud/dev/scripts/relay-asia-topology-workflow.test.mjs
@@ -90,6 +90,9 @@ test('checks the connection budget and production live ceiling before planning',
   assert.match(workflow, /select\(\.name == "max_connections"\)/)
   assert.match(workflow, /VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS_TIER: db-custom-4-15360/)
   assert.match(workflow, /VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS_DATABASE_VERSION: POSTGRES_17/)
+  assert.match(workflow, /VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS: '500'/)
+  assert.match(workflow, /live_max="\$\{VERIFIED_DEFAULT_MAX_CONNECTIONS\}"/)
+  assert.doesNotMatch(workflow, /live_max=\d/)
   assert.match(workflow, /live_source=verified-shape-default/)
   assert.match(workflow, /test "\$\(jq -er '\.settings\.tier'/)
   assert.match(workflow, /test "\$\(jq -er '\.databaseVersion'/)
diff --git a/cloud/docs/relay-incident-monitor.md b/cloud/docs/relay-incident-monitor.md
index 8804b34fae6..500a2e5a140 100644
--- a/cloud/docs/relay-incident-monitor.md
+++ b/cloud/docs/relay-incident-monitor.md
@@ -330,7 +330,8 @@ without its segment is a compile error in relay-contract, not a silent gap.
   latest-sum over 24 healthy hours: mean ~100, 1-minute spikes to 216, with
   10 minutes over the old bar of 160 — enough to freeze roughly one in ten
   15-minute pre-drain gates on baseline noise. 250 cleared the healthy peaks
-  measured then and still fired well before the verified 400-connection ceiling;
+  measured then and still fired well before the 400-connection ceiling assumed at
+  the time (the live instance measured 500 on 2026-09-16);
   pool waiters and pool wait latency keep their strict thresholds. Superseded by
   the 2026-09-17 entry above, which re-measured a grown baseline against the
   490-connection budget.