diff --git a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-auth-presence.test.ts b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-auth-presence.test.ts
index 95854350f7f..6f49f27bfb4 100644
--- a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-auth-presence.test.ts
+++ b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-auth-presence.test.ts
@@ -14,9 +14,13 @@ vi.mock('node:os', () => ({
   homedir: homedirMock
 }))
 
-import { codexAuthExists } from './codex-auth-presence'
+import { probeCodexAuthPresence } from './codex-auth-presence'
 
-describe('codexAuthExists', () => {
+function fsError(code: string): NodeJS.ErrnoException {
+  return Object.assign(new Error(code), { code })
+}
+
+describe('probeCodexAuthPresence', () => {
   const originalCodexHome = process.env.CODEX_HOME
 
   beforeEach(() => {
@@ -36,7 +40,7 @@ describe('codexAuthExists', () => {
   it('checks an explicit managed-account home first', async () => {
     accessMock.mockResolvedValue(undefined)
 
-    await expect(codexAuthExists('/managed/home')).resolves.toBe(true)
+    await expect(probeCodexAuthPresence('/managed/home')).resolves.toBe('present')
     expect(accessMock).toHaveBeenCalledWith(join('/managed/home', 'auth.json'))
   })
 
@@ -44,21 +48,39 @@ describe('codexAuthExists', () => {
     process.env.CODEX_HOME = '/custom/codex'
     accessMock.mockResolvedValue(undefined)
 
-    await expect(codexAuthExists()).resolves.toBe(true)
+    await expect(probeCodexAuthPresence()).resolves.toBe('present')
     expect(accessMock).toHaveBeenCalledWith(join('/custom/codex', 'auth.json'))
   })
 
   it('falls back to ~/.codex when neither home nor CODEX_HOME is set', async () => {
-    accessMock.mockRejectedValue(new Error('ENOENT'))
+    accessMock.mockRejectedValue(fsError('ENOENT'))
 
-    await expect(codexAuthExists()).resolves.toBe(false)
+    await expect(probeCodexAuthPresence()).resolves.toBe('absent')
     expect(accessMock).toHaveBeenCalledWith(join('/home/alice', '.codex', 'auth.json'))
   })
 
-  it('returns false instead of throwing when the fs check fails', async () => {
-    accessMock.mockRejectedValue(new Error('EACCES'))
+  it('keeps an inaccessible auth path distinct from confirmed absence', async () => {
+    accessMock.mockRejectedValue(fsError('EACCES'))
 
-    await expect(codexAuthExists('/managed/home')).resolves.toBe(false)
+    await expect(probeCodexAuthPresence('/managed/home')).resolves.toBe('unavailable')
+  })
+
+  it('confirms WSL auth absence only when the Codex home is reachable', async () => {
+    accessMock.mockRejectedValueOnce(fsError('ENOENT')).mockResolvedValueOnce(undefined)
+
+    await expect(
+      probeCodexAuthPresence('\\\\wsl.localhost\\Ubuntu\\home\\alice\\.codex')
+    ).resolves.toBe('absent')
+    expect(accessMock).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2)
+  })
+
+  it('reports unavailable when WSL cannot resolve either the auth file or its home', async () => {
+    accessMock.mockRejectedValue(fsError('ENOENT'))
+
+    await expect(
+      probeCodexAuthPresence('\\\\wsl.localhost\\Missing\\home\\alice\\.codex')
+    ).resolves.toBe('unavailable')
+    expect(accessMock).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2)
   })
 
   it('stops waiting for a stalled filesystem check when the caller aborts', async () => {
@@ -70,12 +92,12 @@ describe('codexAuthExists', () => {
     )
     const controller = new AbortController()
 
-    const result = codexAuthExists('/managed/home', { signal: controller.signal })
+    const result = probeCodexAuthPresence('/managed/home', { signal: controller.signal })
     await Promise.resolve()
     await Promise.resolve()
     controller.abort()
 
-    await expect(result).resolves.toBe(false)
+    await expect(result).resolves.toBe('unavailable')
     resolveAccess()
     await Promise.resolve()
   })
@@ -90,13 +112,13 @@ describe('codexAuthExists', () => {
     const timeoutController = new AbortController()
     const timeout = vi.spyOn(AbortSignal, 'timeout').mockReturnValue(timeoutController.signal)
 
-    const result = codexAuthExists('/managed/home')
+    const result = probeCodexAuthPresence('/managed/home')
     expect(timeout).toHaveBeenCalledWith(5_000)
     await Promise.resolve()
     await Promise.resolve()
     timeoutController.abort()
 
-    await expect(result).resolves.toBe(false)
+    await expect(result).resolves.toBe('timeout')
     resolveAccess()
     await Promise.resolve()
     timeout.mockRestore()
@@ -112,10 +134,10 @@ describe('codexAuthExists', () => {
     const firstController = new AbortController()
     const secondController = new AbortController()
 
-    const first = codexAuthExists('\\\\wsl.localhost\\Ubuntu\\home\\alice\\.codex', {
+    const first = probeCodexAuthPresence('\\\\wsl.localhost\\Ubuntu\\home\\alice\\.codex', {
       signal: firstController.signal
     })
-    const second = codexAuthExists('\\\\wsl.localhost\\Ubuntu\\home\\alice\\.codex', {
+    const second = probeCodexAuthPresence('\\\\wsl.localhost\\Ubuntu\\home\\alice\\.codex', {
       signal: secondController.signal
     })
 
@@ -124,8 +146,8 @@ describe('codexAuthExists', () => {
     expect(accessMock).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1)
     firstController.abort()
     secondController.abort()
-    await expect(first).resolves.toBe(false)
-    await expect(second).resolves.toBe(false)
+    await expect(first).resolves.toBe('unavailable')
+    await expect(second).resolves.toBe('unavailable')
 
     resolveAccess()
     await Promise.resolve()
diff --git a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-auth-presence.ts b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-auth-presence.ts
index 8ebe81bd9be..833f46a1b6f 100644
--- a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-auth-presence.ts
+++ b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-auth-presence.ts
@@ -1,20 +1,28 @@
 import { access } from 'node:fs/promises'
 import { homedir } from 'node:os'
 import { join } from 'node:path'
+import { parseWslUncPath } from '../../shared/wsl-paths'
 import {
   createAuthFilesystemOperation,
   type SharedAuthFilesystemOperation
 } from './auth-filesystem-operation'
 
 const AUTH_PRESENCE_TIMEOUT_MS = 5_000
-const authPresenceProbeByPath = new Map<string, SharedAuthFilesystemOperation<boolean>>()
+const authPresenceProbeByPath = new Map<string, SharedAuthFilesystemOperation<CodexAuthPresence>>()
+
+export type CodexAuthPresence = 'present' | 'absent' | 'timeout' | 'unavailable'
 
 type CodexAuthPresenceOptions = {
   signal?: AbortSignal
   timeoutMs?: number
 }
 
-function getAuthPresenceProbe(authPath: string): SharedAuthFilesystemOperation<boolean> {
+function isMissingPathError(error: unknown): boolean {
+  const code = (error as NodeJS.ErrnoException | null)?.code
+  return code === 'ENOENT' || code === 'ENOTDIR'
+}
+
+function getAuthPresenceProbe(authPath: string): SharedAuthFilesystemOperation<CodexAuthPresence> {
   const existing = authPresenceProbeByPath.get(authPath)
   if (existing) {
     return existing
@@ -22,12 +30,14 @@ function getAuthPresenceProbe(authPath: string): SharedAuthFilesystemOperation<b
   // Why: aborting a Node fs promise does not necessarily cancel an already
   // issued UNC operation. Share the raw probe until it really settles so a
   // disconnected WSL home cannot accumulate native requests across polls.
-  const probe = createAuthFilesystemOperation(authPath, () =>
-    access(authPath).then(
-      () => true,
-      () => false
-    )
-  )
+  const probe = createAuthFilesystemOperation(authPath, async () => {
+    try {
+      await access(authPath)
+      return 'present'
+    } catch (error) {
+      return isMissingPathError(error) ? 'absent' : 'unavailable'
+    }
+  })
   authPresenceProbeByPath.set(authPath, probe)
   const clearProbe = (): void => {
     if (authPresenceProbeByPath.get(authPath) === probe) {
@@ -44,10 +54,10 @@ function getAuthPresenceProbe(authPath: string): SharedAuthFilesystemOperation<b
 // the background. A signed-in Codex always writes an auth.json under its
 // CODEX_HOME, so gating the fetch on that file keeps the poller silent until
 // the user actually uses Codex.
-export async function codexAuthExists(
+export async function probeCodexAuthPresence(
   codexHomePath?: string | null,
   options: CodexAuthPresenceOptions = {}
-): Promise<boolean> {
+): Promise<CodexAuthPresence> {
   // Mirror Codex's own home resolution: an explicit managed-account home wins,
   // then CODEX_HOME, then the default ~/.codex.
   const home = codexHomePath ?? process.env.CODEX_HOME ?? join(homedir(), '.codex')
@@ -58,8 +68,16 @@ export async function codexAuthExists(
     // Why: managed WSL homes are UNC paths. A synchronous stat can park
     // Electron main while Windows wakes or reconnects the distro; the race
     // also keeps a disconnected distro from serializing all later refreshes.
-    return await getAuthPresenceProbe(authPath).wait(signal)
+    const authPresence = await getAuthPresenceProbe(authPath).wait(signal)
+    if (authPresence !== 'absent' || !parseWslUncPath(home)) {
+      return authPresence
+    }
+
+    // Why: ENOENT on a WSL UNC auth path can mean either a missing auth file or
+    // an unavailable distro. Only an accessible Codex home proves signed-out.
+    const homePresence = await getAuthPresenceProbe(home).wait(signal)
+    return homePresence === 'present' ? 'absent' : 'unavailable'
   } catch {
-    return false
+    return timeoutSignal.aborted && !options.signal?.aborted ? 'timeout' : 'unavailable'
   }
 }
diff --git a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-auth-errors.test.ts b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-auth-errors.test.ts
index 3342b5c608e..43b3bc44e5d 100644
--- a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-auth-errors.test.ts
+++ b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-auth-errors.test.ts
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ vi.mock('node-pty', () => ({
 
 // Auth gate is covered separately; these tests assume a signed-in Codex.
 vi.mock('./codex-auth-presence', () => ({
-  codexAuthExists: vi.fn(() => true)
+  probeCodexAuthPresence: vi.fn(() => 'present')
 }))
 
 import { fetchCodexRateLimits } from './codex-fetcher'
diff --git a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-backend.test.ts b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-backend.test.ts
index 8a0e2ee7028..3028bee551e 100644
--- a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-backend.test.ts
+++ b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-backend.test.ts
@@ -10,7 +10,9 @@ const { childSpawnMock, readFileMock, ptySpawnMock } = vi.hoisted(() => ({
 vi.mock('node:child_process', () => ({ spawn: childSpawnMock }))
 vi.mock('node:fs/promises', () => ({ readFile: readFileMock }))
 vi.mock('node-pty', () => ({ spawn: ptySpawnMock }))
-vi.mock('./codex-auth-presence', () => ({ codexAuthExists: vi.fn(async () => true) }))
+vi.mock('./codex-auth-presence', () => ({
+  probeCodexAuthPresence: vi.fn(async () => 'present')
+}))
 
 import { consumeCodexRateLimitResetCredit, fetchCodexRateLimits } from './codex-fetcher'
 
diff --git a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-pty-settle.test.ts b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-pty-settle.test.ts
index 969ba02ce75..c5088a2ae77 100644
--- a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-pty-settle.test.ts
+++ b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher-pty-settle.test.ts
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ vi.mock('node-pty', () => ({
 
 // Auth gate is covered separately; these tests assume a signed-in Codex.
 vi.mock('./codex-auth-presence', () => ({
-  codexAuthExists: vi.fn(() => true)
+  probeCodexAuthPresence: vi.fn(() => 'present')
 }))
 
 import { fetchCodexRateLimits } from './codex-fetcher'
diff --git a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher.test.ts b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher.test.ts
index a2031ac9941..571229188c6 100644
--- a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher.test.ts
+++ b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher.test.ts
@@ -28,11 +28,11 @@ vi.mock('node-pty', () => ({
 // Default to signed-in so the spawn paths under test still run; the auth gate
 // itself is covered by codex-auth-presence.test.ts and the no-auth case below.
 vi.mock('./codex-auth-presence', () => ({
-  codexAuthExists: vi.fn(() => true)
+  probeCodexAuthPresence: vi.fn(() => 'present')
 }))
 
 import { fetchCodexRateLimits } from './codex-fetcher'
-import { codexAuthExists } from './codex-auth-presence'
+import { probeCodexAuthPresence } from './codex-auth-presence'
 import { getActiveHiddenRateLimitPtyCount } from './hidden-pty-cleanup'
 
 function makeDisposable() {
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ describe('fetchCodexRateLimits', () => {
     vi.useFakeTimers()
     vi.clearAllMocks()
     resolveCodexCommandMock.mockReturnValue('codex')
-    vi.mocked(codexAuthExists).mockResolvedValue(true)
+    vi.mocked(probeCodexAuthPresence).mockResolvedValue('present')
     readFileMock.mockRejectedValue(new Error('no auth fixture'))
     vi.stubGlobal('fetch', vi.fn())
   })
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ describe('fetchCodexRateLimits', () => {
   })
 
   it('does not spawn Codex when the user is not signed in', async () => {
-    vi.mocked(codexAuthExists).mockResolvedValue(false)
+    vi.mocked(probeCodexAuthPresence).mockResolvedValue('absent')
 
     await expect(fetchCodexRateLimits()).resolves.toMatchObject({
       provider: 'codex',
@@ -102,9 +102,9 @@ describe('fetchCodexRateLimits', () => {
   })
 
   it('preserves the aborted result when cancellation lands during the auth check', async () => {
-    let resolveAuth!: (exists: boolean) => void
-    vi.mocked(codexAuthExists).mockReturnValueOnce(
-      new Promise<boolean>((resolve) => {
+    let resolveAuth!: (presence: 'absent') => void
+    vi.mocked(probeCodexAuthPresence).mockReturnValueOnce(
+      new Promise<'absent'>((resolve) => {
         resolveAuth = resolve
       })
     )
@@ -112,7 +112,7 @@ describe('fetchCodexRateLimits', () => {
 
     const result = fetchCodexRateLimits({ signal: controller.signal })
     controller.abort()
-    resolveAuth(false)
+    resolveAuth('absent')
 
     await expect(result).resolves.toMatchObject({
       provider: 'codex',
@@ -123,6 +123,24 @@ describe('fetchCodexRateLimits', () => {
     expect(ptySpawnMock).not.toHaveBeenCalled()
   })
 
+  it.each([
+    ['timeout', 'Timed out while checking Codex sign-in status'],
+    ['unavailable', 'Codex sign-in status is unavailable']
+  ] as const)(
+    'does not report an indeterminate %s probe as signed out',
+    async (presence, error) => {
+      vi.mocked(probeCodexAuthPresence).mockResolvedValue(presence)
+
+      await expect(fetchCodexRateLimits()).resolves.toMatchObject({
+        provider: 'codex',
+        status: 'error',
+        error
+      })
+      expect(childSpawnMock).not.toHaveBeenCalled()
+      expect(ptySpawnMock).not.toHaveBeenCalled()
+    }
+  )
+
   it('disposes node-pty listeners before killing the PTY fallback on timeout', async () => {
     const onDataDisposable = makeDisposable()
     const onExitDisposable = makeDisposable()
diff --git a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher.ts b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher.ts
index 8a3ed94bdff..d606a12e850 100644
--- a/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher.ts
+++ b/src/main/rate-limits/codex-fetcher.ts
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ import { spawn } from 'node:child_process'
 import { readFile } from 'node:fs/promises'
 import { homedir } from 'node:os'
 import { join } from 'node:path'
-import { codexAuthExists } from './codex-auth-presence'
+import { probeCodexAuthPresence } from './codex-auth-presence'
 import { resolveCodexCommand } from '../codex-cli/command'
 import { withMacTailscaleDnsHint } from '../network/macos-tailscale-dns-diagnostic'
 import { getCmdExePath, getSpawnArgsForWindows } from '../win32-utils'
@@ -1026,13 +1026,13 @@ export async function fetchCodexRateLimits(
   // Why: never spawn the `codex` binary unless the user has signed in. Without
   // auth the RPC/PTY paths can only error, and spawning them shows up as an
   // unexpected background Codex process for users who don't use Codex.
-  const hasCodexAuth = await codexAuthExists(options?.codexHomePath, {
+  const authPresence = await probeCodexAuthPresence(options?.codexHomePath, {
     signal: options?.signal
   })
   if (options?.signal?.aborted) {
     return abortedCodexRateLimitResult()
   }
-  if (!hasCodexAuth) {
+  if (authPresence === 'absent') {
     return {
       provider: 'codex',
       session: null,
@@ -1042,6 +1042,19 @@ export async function fetchCodexRateLimits(
       status: 'unavailable'
     }
   }
+  if (authPresence !== 'present') {
+    return {
+      provider: 'codex',
+      session: null,
+      weekly: null,
+      updatedAt: Date.now(),
+      error:
+        authPresence === 'timeout'
+          ? 'Timed out while checking Codex sign-in status'
+          : 'Codex sign-in status is unavailable',
+      status: 'error'
+    }
+  }
 
   // Path A (WSL): use Codex's own backend usage contract. Host accounts retain
   // app-server's token-refresh/custom-CA behavior; WSL avoids starting a login