diff --git a/src/cli/plugin-authoring/plugin-folder-validation.ts b/src/cli/plugin-authoring/plugin-folder-validation.ts
index b58f57c572b..282c30d2dca 100644
--- a/src/cli/plugin-authoring/plugin-folder-validation.ts
+++ b/src/cli/plugin-authoring/plugin-folder-validation.ts
@@ -14,6 +14,10 @@ import {
 } from '../../shared/plugins/approval/plugin-cli-approval'
 import { strictPluginArtifactErrors } from '../../shared/plugins/authoring/plugin-strict-artifact-checks'
 import { validatePluginFile } from '../../shared/plugins/installation/plugin-file-validation'
+import {
+  localPluginPublisher,
+  withPluginPublisher
+} from '../../shared/plugins/installation/plugin-publisher-derivation'
 import {
   PLUGIN_MANIFEST_FILENAME,
   parsePluginManifest,
@@ -114,7 +118,10 @@ export async function validatePluginTarget(target: string): Promise<PluginValida
     valid: errors.length === 0,
     errors,
     plugin: {
-      pluginKey: qualifiedPluginKey(manifest),
+      // Why derived: a folder loads under its declared publisher, else `local`, like dev discovery.
+      pluginKey: qualifiedPluginKey(
+        withPluginPublisher(manifest, localPluginPublisher(manifest.publisher))
+      ),
       name: manifest.name,
       version: manifest.version,
       needsApproval: pluginNeedsCliApproval(manifest),
diff --git a/src/cli/plugin-authoring/plugin-templates.test.ts b/src/cli/plugin-authoring/plugin-templates.test.ts
index 301b48d5778..9083e595a5f 100644
--- a/src/cli/plugin-authoring/plugin-templates.test.ts
+++ b/src/cli/plugin-authoring/plugin-templates.test.ts
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { mkdtemp, rm, writeFile } from 'node:fs/promises'
+import { mkdtemp, readFile, rm, writeFile } from 'node:fs/promises'
 import { tmpdir } from 'node:os'
 import { join } from 'node:path'
 import { afterEach, describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
@@ -64,6 +64,19 @@ describe('orca plugin validate', () => {
     expect(report.errors.join('\n')).toContain('contributes.themes')
   })
 
+  it('names a folder without a publisher the way Orca loads it', async () => {
+    const dir = join(await tempRoot(), 'nopub')
+    await createPluginFromTemplate({ dir, template: 'theme', publisher: 'acme' })
+    const manifestPath = join(dir, 'orca-plugin.json')
+    const manifest = JSON.parse(await readFile(manifestPath, 'utf8'))
+    delete manifest.publisher
+    manifest.engines.orca = '>=1.4.246'
+    await writeFile(manifestPath, JSON.stringify(manifest))
+    const report = await validatePluginTarget(dir)
+    expect(report.errors).toEqual([])
+    expect(report.plugin?.pluginKey).toBe('local.nopub')
+  })
+
   it('reports a missing panel entry', async () => {
     const dir = join(await tempRoot(), 'panel')
     await createPluginFromTemplate({ dir, template: 'panel', publisher: 'acme' })