diff --git a/src/main/git/source-control/branch-compare.ts b/src/main/git/source-control/branch-compare.ts
index 9bbe9cd6a8f..b7a6b4d69b5 100644
--- a/src/main/git/source-control/branch-compare.ts
+++ b/src/main/git/source-control/branch-compare.ts
@@ -7,6 +7,12 @@ import { resolveWorktreeAddBaseRef } from '../../../shared/worktree/base-ref'
 import type { GitRuntimeOptions } from '../git-runtime-options'
 import { resolveWorktreeBaseCommitOid } from '../worktrees/creation/worktree-base-ref-probe'
 import { loadBranchChanges } from './branch-change-entries'
+import {
+  commitPairDivergences,
+  commitPairMergeBases,
+  readCommitPairScope,
+  rememberCommitPair
+} from './commit-pair-cache'
 import {
   countCompareDivergence,
   resolveCompareRef,
@@ -29,6 +35,8 @@ export async function getBranchCompare(
     status: 'loading'
   }
 
+  // Never rejects; read alongside ref resolution so cache hits add no latency.
+  const pairScopePromise = readCommitPairScope(worktreePath, options)
   // Reuse peeled commit OIDs only for branch refs; remote-tracking refs may hold annotated tags.
   const reusableProbedOidByRef = new Map<string, string>()
   const { compareRef, headOidResult, baseOidResult } = await readBranchCompareHead({
@@ -83,9 +91,19 @@ export async function getBranchCompare(
     return { summary, entries: [] }
   }
 
+  // Polls re-resolve only the refs; history walks rerun when a tip moves.
+  const pairScope = await pairScopePromise
+  const rereadPairScope = () => readCommitPairScope(worktreePath, options)
   let mergeBase = ''
   try {
-    mergeBase = await resolveMergeBase(worktreePath, baseOid, headOid, options)
+    mergeBase = await rememberCommitPair(
+      commitPairMergeBases,
+      pairScope,
+      rereadPairScope,
+      baseOid,
+      headOid,
+      () => resolveMergeBase(worktreePath, baseOid, headOid, options)
+    )
     summary.mergeBase = mergeBase
   } catch {
     summary.status = 'no-merge-base'
@@ -105,7 +123,9 @@ export async function getBranchCompare(
 
     const [entries, divergence] = await Promise.all([
       loadBranchChanges(worktreePath, mergeBase, headOid, options),
-      countCompareDivergence(worktreePath, baseOid, headOid, options)
+      rememberCommitPair(commitPairDivergences, pairScope, rereadPairScope, baseOid, headOid, () =>
+        countCompareDivergence(worktreePath, baseOid, headOid, options)
+      )
     ])
     summary.changedFiles = entries.length
     summary.commitsAhead = divergence.ahead
diff --git a/src/main/git/source-control/commit-pair-cache.ts b/src/main/git/source-control/commit-pair-cache.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000..c74f732d841
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/main/git/source-control/commit-pair-cache.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,145 @@
+import { readFile, stat } from 'node:fs/promises'
+import * as path from 'node:path'
+import { resolveWorktreeHostPath } from '../../../shared/git/metadata/git-metadata-path'
+import type { GitRuntimeOptions } from '../git-runtime-options'
+import { resolveGitCommonDir, resolveGitDir } from './resolve-git-dir'
+import { canProveUnchangedByStamp, readFileStampComponent } from './worktree-diff-stamp'
+
+/** Opaque object-store identity under which a commit pair's graph answers stay valid. */
+export type CommitPairScope = string
+
+/** One bounded LRU per answer kind keeps values typed without casts. */
+export type CommitPairStore<T> = Map<string, T>
+
+const MAX_ENTRIES_PER_STORE = 128
+export const commitPairMergeBases: CommitPairStore<string> = new Map()
+export const commitPairDivergences: CommitPairStore<{ ahead: number; behind: number }> = new Map()
+
+// These move replace refs, grafts or the object store away from the common dir this scope stats.
+const GRAPH_RELOCATING_ENV = [
+  'GIT_REPLACE_REF_BASE',
+  'GIT_GRAFT_FILE',
+  'GIT_DIR',
+  'GIT_COMMON_DIR',
+  'GIT_OBJECT_DIRECTORY',
+  'GIT_SHALLOW_FILE'
+]
+// Replace refs and grafts are rare and their effect depends on per-worktree config, so their presence disables caching.
+const GRAPH_REWRITE_PATHS = [path.join('refs', 'replace'), path.join('info', 'grafts'), 'reftable']
+// Bounds the one-off packed-refs scan per change; larger ref stores just skip caching.
+const MAX_PACKED_REFS_SCAN_BYTES = 8 * 1024 * 1024
+const MAX_SCANNED_PACKED_REFS = 64
+/** Common dir -> packed-refs stamp last proven to hold no replace refs. */
+const packedRefsWithoutReplaceRefs = new Map<string, string>()
+
+/** Read without spawning Git; null when replace refs or grafts could apply, or inputs are not provably stable. */
+export async function readCommitPairScope(
+  worktreePath: string,
+  options: Pick<GitRuntimeOptions, 'wslDistro'> = {}
+): Promise<CommitPairScope | null> {
+  const capturedAtMs = Date.now()
+  if (GRAPH_RELOCATING_ENV.some((name) => process.env[name])) {
+    return null
+  }
+  try {
+    const hostWorktreePath = resolveWorktreeHostPath(worktreePath, options)
+    if (!hostWorktreePath) {
+      return null
+    }
+    const commonDir = await resolveGitCommonDir(await resolveGitDir(hostWorktreePath, options))
+    const [objects, rewritePathsPresent, shallow, packedRefs] = await Promise.all([
+      stat(path.join(commonDir, 'objects')),
+      Promise.all(GRAPH_REWRITE_PATHS.map((input) => pathExists(path.join(commonDir, input)))),
+      readFileStampComponent(path.join(commonDir, 'shallow')),
+      readFileStampComponent(path.join(commonDir, 'packed-refs'))
+    ])
+    if (!objects.isDirectory() || rewritePathsPresent.some(Boolean)) {
+      return null
+    }
+    const value = JSON.stringify([commonDir, shallow.text])
+    const newestMtimeMs = Math.max(shallow.mtimeMs, packedRefs.mtimeMs)
+    // A rewrite inside the mtime bucket could leave the stamp unchanged.
+    if (!canProveUnchangedByStamp({ value, newestMtimeMs, capturedAtMs })) {
+      return null
+    }
+    if (
+      Number.isFinite(packedRefs.mtimeMs) &&
+      !(await isPackedRefsFreeOfReplaceRefs(commonDir, packedRefs.text))
+    ) {
+      return null
+    }
+    return value
+  } catch {
+    return null
+  }
+}
+
+async function isPackedRefsFreeOfReplaceRefs(commonDir: string, stamp: string): Promise<boolean> {
+  if (packedRefsWithoutReplaceRefs.get(commonDir) === stamp) {
+    return true
+  }
+  const packedRefsPath = path.join(commonDir, 'packed-refs')
+  if ((await stat(packedRefsPath)).size > MAX_PACKED_REFS_SCAN_BYTES) {
+    return false
+  }
+  // Lines are `<oid> <refname>`; a false positive only skips caching.
+  if ((await readFile(packedRefsPath, 'utf-8')).includes(' refs/replace/')) {
+    return false
+  }
+  packedRefsWithoutReplaceRefs.delete(commonDir)
+  packedRefsWithoutReplaceRefs.set(commonDir, stamp)
+  if (packedRefsWithoutReplaceRefs.size > MAX_SCANNED_PACKED_REFS) {
+    const oldest = packedRefsWithoutReplaceRefs.keys().next()
+    if (!oldest.done) {
+      packedRefsWithoutReplaceRefs.delete(oldest.value)
+    }
+  }
+  return true
+}
+
+async function pathExists(filePath: string): Promise<boolean> {
+  try {
+    await stat(filePath)
+    return true
+  } catch (error) {
+    const code = (error as NodeJS.ErrnoException | null)?.code
+    if (code === 'ENOENT' || code === 'ENOTDIR') {
+      return false
+    }
+    throw error
+  }
+}
+
+/** Reuse a successful answer for this exact commit pair; failures and aborts are never stored. */
+export async function rememberCommitPair<T>(
+  entries: CommitPairStore<T>,
+  scope: CommitPairScope | null,
+  rereadScope: () => Promise<CommitPairScope | null>,
+  baseOid: string,
+  headOid: string,
+  compute: () => Promise<T>
+): Promise<T> {
+  if (scope === null) {
+    return compute()
+  }
+  const key = JSON.stringify([scope, baseOid, headOid])
+  const cached = entries.get(key)
+  if (cached !== undefined) {
+    entries.delete(key)
+    entries.set(key, cached)
+    return cached
+  }
+  const value = await compute()
+  // A history rewrite during the walk would file its answer under the pre-rewrite scope.
+  if ((await rereadScope()) !== scope) {
+    return value
+  }
+  entries.set(key, value)
+  if (entries.size > MAX_ENTRIES_PER_STORE) {
+    const oldest = entries.keys().next()
+    if (!oldest.done) {
+      entries.delete(oldest.value)
+    }
+  }
+  return value
+}
diff --git a/src/main/git/source-control/resolve-git-dir.ts b/src/main/git/source-control/resolve-git-dir.ts
index 8c529c44fc0..70554e42123 100644
--- a/src/main/git/source-control/resolve-git-dir.ts
+++ b/src/main/git/source-control/resolve-git-dir.ts
@@ -24,3 +24,17 @@ export async function resolveGitDir(
 
   return dotGitPath
 }
+
+/** Linked worktrees name their shared object store in `commondir`; a main gitdir is its own. */
+export async function resolveGitCommonDir(gitDir: string): Promise<string> {
+  try {
+    const entry = (await readFile(path.join(gitDir, 'commondir'), 'utf-8')).trim()
+    return entry ? path.resolve(gitDir, entry) : gitDir
+  } catch (error) {
+    const code = (error as NodeJS.ErrnoException | null)?.code
+    if (code === 'ENOENT' || code === 'ENOTDIR') {
+      return gitDir
+    }
+    throw error
+  }
+}
diff --git a/src/main/git/source-control/status-branch-compare-real-ref.test.ts b/src/main/git/source-control/status-branch-compare-real-ref.test.ts
index c5e865a9bfa..a5f40187594 100644
--- a/src/main/git/source-control/status-branch-compare-real-ref.test.ts
+++ b/src/main/git/source-control/status-branch-compare-real-ref.test.ts
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { execFileSync } from 'node:child_process'
-import { mkdtemp, rm, writeFile } from 'node:fs/promises'
+import { mkdtemp, readFile, readdir, realpath, rm, utimes, writeFile } from 'node:fs/promises'
 import { tmpdir } from 'node:os'
 import * as path from 'node:path'
 import { afterEach, describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
@@ -88,6 +88,113 @@ describe('getBranchCompare real refs', () => {
     })
   })
 
+  describe('commit-pair cache under history rewrites', () => {
+    // Fixed old mtimes put every rewrite past the racy-write margin, so only the scope can force a recount.
+    const aged = new Date('2020-01-01T00:00:00Z')
+
+    /** root <- a <- b <- tip on `feature`, with `base` at root (tip is 3 ahead). */
+    async function createChainRepo(): Promise<{ repo: string; oids: Record<string, string> }> {
+      // Canonical path so linked worktrees and the main checkout resolve one common dir.
+      const repo = await realpath(
+        await mkdtemp(path.join(tmpdir(), 'orca-branch-compare-rewrite-'))
+      )
+      tempRoots.push(repo)
+      git(repo, ['init', '-q', '-b', 'feature'])
+      git(repo, ['config', 'user.email', 'test@example.com'])
+      git(repo, ['config', 'user.name', 'Test User'])
+      git(repo, ['config', 'commit.gpgSign', 'false'])
+      const oids: Record<string, string> = {}
+      for (const name of ['root', 'a', 'b', 'tip']) {
+        git(repo, ['commit', '--allow-empty', '-qm', name])
+        oids[name] = git(repo, ['rev-parse', 'HEAD'])
+        if (name === 'root') {
+          git(repo, ['branch', 'base'])
+        }
+      }
+      return { repo, oids }
+    }
+
+    async function ageReplaceRefs(repo: string): Promise<void> {
+      const replaceDir = path.join(repo, '.git', 'refs', 'replace')
+      for (const entry of await readdir(replaceDir)) {
+        await utimes(path.join(replaceDir, entry), aged, aged)
+      }
+      await utimes(replaceDir, aged, aged)
+    }
+
+    async function commitsAhead(worktree: string): Promise<number | undefined> {
+      return (await getBranchCompare(worktree, 'base')).summary.commitsAhead
+    }
+
+    it('recounts after a replace ref is added', async () => {
+      const { repo, oids } = await createChainRepo()
+      expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(3)
+
+      git(repo, ['replace', '--graft', oids.tip, oids.root])
+      await ageReplaceRefs(repo)
+
+      expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(1)
+    })
+
+    it('recounts after an existing loose replace ref is edited in place', async () => {
+      const { repo, oids } = await createChainRepo()
+      git(repo, ['replace', '--graft', oids.tip, oids.a])
+      const replaceRef = path.join(repo, '.git', 'refs', 'replace', oids.tip)
+      const tipOntoA = await readFile(replaceRef, 'utf8')
+      git(repo, ['replace', '--force', '--graft', oids.tip, oids.root])
+      await ageReplaceRefs(repo)
+      expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(1)
+
+      await writeFile(replaceRef, tipOntoA)
+      await utimes(path.dirname(replaceRef), aged, aged)
+
+      expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(2)
+    })
+
+    it('recounts after a replace ref is packed away from refs/replace', async () => {
+      const { repo, oids } = await createChainRepo()
+      expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(3)
+
+      git(repo, ['replace', '--graft', oids.tip, oids.root])
+      git(repo, ['pack-refs', '--all'])
+      await rm(path.join(repo, '.git', 'refs', 'replace'), { recursive: true, force: true })
+      await utimes(path.join(repo, '.git', 'packed-refs'), aged, aged)
+
+      expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(1)
+    })
+
+    it('keeps per-worktree core.useReplaceRefs answers apart', async () => {
+      const { repo, oids } = await createChainRepo()
+      git(repo, ['replace', '--graft', oids.tip, oids.root])
+      const linked = path.join(path.dirname(repo), `${path.basename(repo)}-linked`)
+      tempRoots.push(linked)
+      git(repo, ['worktree', 'add', '-q', '--detach', linked, oids.tip])
+      git(repo, ['config', 'extensions.worktreeConfig', 'true'])
+      git(linked, ['config', '--worktree', 'core.useReplaceRefs', 'false'])
+      await ageReplaceRefs(repo)
+
+      expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(1)
+      expect(await commitsAhead(linked)).toBe(3)
+    })
+
+    it('honors a custom GIT_REPLACE_REF_BASE namespace', async () => {
+      const { repo, oids } = await createChainRepo()
+      const previous = process.env.GIT_REPLACE_REF_BASE
+      process.env.GIT_REPLACE_REF_BASE = 'refs/custom-replacements/'
+      try {
+        expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(3)
+        git(repo, ['replace', '--graft', oids.tip, oids.root])
+        expect(await commitsAhead(repo)).toBe(1)
+      } finally {
+        if (previous === undefined) {
+          delete process.env.GIT_REPLACE_REF_BASE
+        } else {
+          process.env.GIT_REPLACE_REF_BASE = previous
+        }
+      }
+    })
+  })
+
   it('preserves the raw oid of a remote-tracking ref that stores an annotated tag', async () => {
     const root = await mkdtemp(path.join(tmpdir(), 'orca-branch-compare-ref-'))
     tempRoots.push(root)
diff --git a/src/main/git/source-control/worktree-diff-stamp.ts b/src/main/git/source-control/worktree-diff-stamp.ts
index 8de1a246e5b..42bb2f3fc0a 100644
--- a/src/main/git/source-control/worktree-diff-stamp.ts
+++ b/src/main/git/source-control/worktree-diff-stamp.ts
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import { readFile, stat } from 'node:fs/promises'
 import * as path from 'node:path'
 import { resolveWorktreeHostPath } from '../../../shared/git/metadata/git-metadata-path'
 import type { GitRuntimeOptions } from '../git-runtime-options'
-import { resolveGitDir } from './resolve-git-dir'
+import { resolveGitCommonDir, resolveGitDir } from './resolve-git-dir'
 
 /** Stamp HEAD, index, routing metadata and working-file inputs without Git; null forbids caching. */
 export type WorktreeDiffStamp = {
@@ -77,14 +77,13 @@ export async function readWorktreeDiffStamp(
 
 /** Read loose ref content to detect commits without HEAD changes; packed/reftable/unborn tips use file stamps. */
 async function readHeadComponent(gitDir: string): Promise<StampComponent | null> {
-  const [head, commonDirEntry] = await Promise.all([
+  const [head, commonDir] = await Promise.all([
     readTrimmedFile(path.join(gitDir, 'HEAD')),
-    readTrimmedFile(path.join(gitDir, 'commondir'))
+    resolveGitCommonDir(gitDir)
   ])
   if (!head) {
     return null
   }
-  const commonDir = commonDirEntry ? path.resolve(gitDir, commonDirEntry) : gitDir
   const refName = head.match(/^ref:\s*(.+?)\s*$/)?.[1]
   if (!refName || !isSafeRefName(refName)) {
     // Detached HEAD already holds the object id; an unrecognized HEAD is covered by its own text.
@@ -136,7 +135,7 @@ async function readTrimmedFile(filePath: string): Promise<string | null> {
   }
 }
 
-async function readFileStampComponent(filePath: string): Promise<StampComponent> {
+export async function readFileStampComponent(filePath: string): Promise<StampComponent> {
   try {
     const stats = await stat(filePath)
     return { text: `${requireMtimeMs(stats.mtimeMs)}:${stats.size}`, mtimeMs: stats.mtimeMs }